Will Cuba’s Future Resemble Nicaragua’s Reality?

By: Leroy A. Binns Ph.D.

The US sustained Somoza and Batista regimes of Nicaragua and Cuba respectively – hallmarks of mismanagement, corruption and inequality gave rise to grassroots politics in the form of socialist movements that ultimately produced the likes of revolutionary figures such as Daniel Ortega and Fidel Castro. However such transitions underscored elements of East/West rivalry within America’s sphere of influence and later enticed guerilla warfare and subsequently the downfall of the Ortega government plus numerous attempts including the Bay of Pigs and a forty year economic embargo against Cuba in anticipation of an identical outcome.

In its campaign against communism Washington ignored major accomplishments by both states such as significant gains in literacy, free education and health care, land reform, the erection of schools, hospitals and clinics and the provision of water supplies and trained and financially supported the covert operations to the tune of millions of dollars to wage war against the progressive regimes while promising democracy and economic prosperity. A difference of opinion towards agitation and the acceptance of elections in principle became the backdrop for resistance by the leaderships to foreign interference on sovereign soil which in return boosted austere castigation commencing with the severance of diplomatic affiliation with Washington. In the end after eleven years of civil strife and a ravaged economy the disenchanted Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) capitulated and in April 1990 lost a US observed referendum to Violeta Barrios de Chamorro the wife of La Prensa’s renowned assassinated journalist Pedro Joaquin Chamorro. However in contrast the world’s longest reigning government has thus far been successful in defeating destabilization efforts to preserve power.

Over the years US governments had extensive opportunities to fulfill past promises to the citizens of Nicaragua and by so doing enhance its case for the removal of Castro from the helm of Cuban politics but a revelation of failed policies synonymous with mass destruction and its offspring poverty begs inquiry, With Nicaragua as a point of reference should Cuba anticipate preferential treatment and more so fortune at the hands of Washington in a post Castro era?

Once in power President Chamorro was awarded $400 million by the Bush administration in exchange for compliance with the directives of the World Bank and the IMF namely a structural adjustment program with shortcomings that included the severance of state employees primarily in education, health and social services, a decrease in army personnel from 95,000 to 16,000, the loss of property acquired by small farmers under the previous administration and a neo-liberal policy that destroyed many local industries. Amid credit for a favorable inflation rate and a stabilized currency the sudden turn of events increased the unemployment rate from 35% in 1989 to 60% two years later culminating in the FSLN led September 1993 nationwide strike. The fiscal disaster was also magnified as the country’s liability rose from $1 billion in 1979 to $8 billion in 1996. In fact according to the UN’s assessment in 1991 Nicaragua ranked 85^th on its human development index and by 1995 plummeted to 117^th second only to Haiti as the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere with 80% of its population below the poverty level.

In 1996 term limits led to emergence of Arnoldo Aleman, the former mayor of Managua and an associate of the Somoza family under the umbrella of a five party alliance. With the White House’s blessing and a distorted electoral process confirmed by Oscar Arias, an independent observer and ex-president of Costa Rica he too succeeded in defeating Ortega and inherited the office of the presidency.

Although Aleman campaigned in favor of 100,000 new jobs to many pundits he lacked a platform beyond anti-Sandinista rhetoric and was also a torch bearer of regressive US measures hence unable to initiate transformation. An admiration of impractical policies would set the stage for excessive levels of crime in urban centers and an alarming increase in drug use and suicides. Such watershed was partly responsible for a public embarrassment – the April 1997 historic five day national strike orchestrated by the Sandinistas that temporarily paralyzed the nation. Moreover in light of the composition of the National Assembly (the liberal Alliance won 42 seats, the FSLN 36 and the smaller parties shared 15) and his allegiance to a coalition the president faced strong opposition enacting legislation.

In a country plagued by drought, a global reduction in coffee prices resulting in hunger and joblessness and employment earnings in many instances recorded at less than $1 a day, girth and extravagance were frequent practices of the administration. In spite of limited economic success and some achievements in the construction of roads and schools the head of state paid his cabinet ministers $12,000 per month, subsidized lavish parties and built himself a new helicopter landing pad – all at the expense of the treasury. In sum such thoughtless behavior was later characterized by James Carter a former president of the United States in precise terms, “The general assessment by international organizations is that Aleman’s is one of the most corrupt administrations in the hemisphere.”

Amidst directorship of a decade long futile exercise largely accountable for approximately $10 billion in debt over eleven times the country’s annual export earnings America once again affected the electoral process of November 4 by propagandizing Ortega and embracing a questionable contender and later victor Enrique Bolanos, a businessman and former vice president to outgoing president Aleman. In the words of Secretary of State Colin Powell an African/American of Jamaican descent, “The United States has serious reservations about Ortega and his Sandinista party for their past trampling on civil liberties, destroying the economy and maintaining links with those who support terrorism.” In addition John Keene acting deputy secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs shared such sentiments by saying, “I would be dishonest if I did not acknowledge that the possibility of a Sandinista victory is disconcerted to the US government. We cannot forget that during the 1979 – 1990 Sandinista era Nicaragua became a haven for violent political extremists from the Middle East, Europe and Latin America.”

Unfortunately as mentioned by Shelley McConnell, a Latin American specialist at the Carter Center in Atlanta, strategies towards a successful economic agenda for Nicaragua continue to be ignored. Further a consistency in flawed US foreign policy throughout the Third World demonstrates a semblance to the Nicaraguan crisis and therefore a Cuban scenario subject to comparable conditions would undoubtedly by catastrophic.

In order to attain a sense of credibility and sensitivity and foster human development in Nicaragua the United States must advance the following recommendations;

The US in accordance with the UN World Court should compensate Nicaragua $17 billion in damages resulting from an economic and military crusade.

America should encourage international financial institutions to create a climate which enhances the provision of assistance to stimulate broad based economic development in Nicaragua. Such should incorporate debt forgiveness and loan recommendations.

US trade policy must demonstrate consciousness of Nicaragua’s inability to compete effectively and therefore ensure protection for her goods and services. Added business investments could benefit the country’s trading prospects.

America must function within the capacity of an independent party in support of democratic process and institutions in Nicaragua. In essence she must refrain from intervening in the political affairs of this Latin American nation.

A reluctance or ineptness to endorse aforementioned modifications towards Nicaragua in particular and where applicable to the South in general will result in calamitous consequences worldwide.