China: An Emerging Superpower

By: Leroy A. Binns Ph.D.

Introduction

Ever since the 1973 historic meeting between President Richard Nixon and Premier Mao Zedong political analysts have been tracking a cordial yet adversarial Sino-US relationship. However with the extinction of the Soviet Union and its empire the dynamics of diplomacy are subject to a constant state of change and speculation is in the air as Washington alters focus on China its arch rival by concentrating much of its attention on the economic and military prowess of Asia’s foremost communist state and its implications for world politics.

Perestroika

Economic reforms demonstrated by Deng Xiaoping’s Open Policy have in part redressed the country’s landscape of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution by way of performance and living standards. Since 1980 the Chinese regime despite philosophical orientation expanded foreign trade and encouraged commercial entities overseas to invest locally. As a result fiscal indicators during 1952 to 1980 contributing to a disproportionate increase in average individual income of only 100% amidst accelerated gross output value in industry and agriculture at 810% and augmented national income of 420% were assessed and substituted with inclusive measures. By 1988 with record success in private and collective industry and commerce in rural areas accredited to glasnost the government’s implementation of yet another program, the coastal development strategy furthered foreign investment to the advantage of over 200 million citizens.

In recent years optimism has been illustrated through transformation in Shanghai. The city dubbed the nation’s financial hub for international and domestic collaboration received $3.3 billion during the 1980s, a similar amount in 1992 and $6 billion in the 10 months that followed. With additional funding boosting the status of an urban center in readiness for a second international airport, a financial district featuring a new stock exchange and a General Motors factory designed to build Buick automobiles, Shanghai along with its environs in the Yangtze Delta with a combined population of over 400 million citizens are reaping the profits of success.

The return of Hong Kong the world’s third largest financial center from London to Beijing in July 1997 also adds to the global presence of the world’s most populous state of 1.2 billion inhabitants. Like China the former British colony benefits from billions of dollars of investments while its firms provide goods and services to numerous factories on the mainland. In addition with appealing accommodations such as an upgraded infrastructure enhanced income capabilities and a growing workforce fiscal support extends beyond the nation’s major cities. Boeing intends to invest $100 million in a plant in Xian to manufacture parts for the 737 aircraft while E.I. du Pont is negotiating 28 new projects that could escalate its rustic investments tenfold within the next decade.

To date unequivocal results attributed to the Chinese economy particularly the growth of China’s gross domestic product at an average of 9.3% between 1979 – 1993 (the country’s GDP also quadrupled over a fifteen year period), a trading status up 26 positions from 37^th to 11^th in ten years, a large foreign currency reserve second only to Japan and external investments ranked next to the United States are cause for concern. In a display of support for most favored nation trading status (MFN) to China before the Senate Finance Committee in 1996 Secretary of State Madeleine Albright acknowledged the gravity of Chinese-American relations by stating, “The withdrawal of MFN would devastate our economic relationship. It would invite Chinese retaliation against our export which have nearly quadrupled in the last decade and totaled $12 billion in 1996. These exports support an estimated 170,000 jobs in the United States. The ending of MFN would also damage future opportunities for American investment as China would steer contracts to our economic competitors. According to the World Bank estimates China’s new infrastructure investment will total $750 billion in the next decade alone. Revocation would likewise add more than half a billion dollars to the annual shopping bill of American consumers due to higher prices on imports.”

Arms Proliferations

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the world’s most elaborate army comprised of 2.2 million troops with the third largest air force consisting of 5,300 aircrafts, the biggest small ship navy and sophisticated nuclear arsenal which has the capacity of altering its borders and its interests in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan. Contentions in part incorporates Beijing’s claim to national boundaries that extends 1,000 miles into international and territorial waters near the southern rim of the South China Sea, Taiwan and the Spratlys Islands hence setting the stage for a collision course with Washington.

To further sustain regional hegemony the cost of the Chinese defense effort which was worth $8.7 billion in 1996 has increased beyond 200% since 1988 and includes but is not limited to

The construction of several aircraft carriers in the next 15 years

The replacement of older warships with new vessels equipped with advanced anti-ship missiles, surface to air missiles and anti-submarine efficiency.

The development of six new fighter aircrafts and purchase of 48 Russian Su-27 fighters.

The introduction of a new class of nuclear attack submarines and nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

The construction of land-based and mobile inter-continental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads.

In other words China’s new weapons programs as assessed by some military experts are attempts to project power and extend beyond the parameters required for countering local rivals such as Japan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. Michael Pillsbury a senior Pentagon official in the Reagan administration states, “China’s relentless secrecy is undermining the efforts of senior US military and intelligence officials to dismiss the China arms buildup as purely defensive and an acceptable path for an emerging power.” Also of significance is a report by the Office of Naval Intelligence in 1997 which confirms that Beijing has been marketing anti-ship cruise missiles for the past two decades with intensification in sales during the last two years and an expectation of continued proliferation to Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Thailand and Burma in the coming years.

Conclusion

With the demise of the Soviet Bloc and economic and military modernization in China the United States of America nurtures a delicate balance with a country she faults for human rights violations. Isolation would expose Washington to economic liability and limit her influence on matters pertinent to the South China Sea and associated domain.