Why Hillary Will Win

By: Leroy A. Binns Ph.D.

The current presidential race defies history. An assembly of an assorted few, the first African-American, Mormon, Hispanic, Italian-American and the first candidate over age 70 are all vying to replace George Bush in the Oval office in January 2009. This possibility nonetheless is complicated with the participation of the first woman Hillary Rodham Clinton who may well be the next president of the United States of America.

Thus far the politics of ethnicity, gender and age is driven by speculations and character assassination. As the sole female emerges a leading contestant among the parties’ hopefuls she attracts scrutiny and the obvious question; Can Hillary win election 2008?

In early January a USA/Gallup poll revealed 14% of democrats voiced support for Hillary to be their party nominee while 52% said they would consider her candidacy. When asked why they may endorse her 29% expressed doubt in her ability to win the presidency whereas 26% spoke to philosophical differences. While 68% of the American public offer kudos on character traits of which strength and competence are acknowledged her persona is described by many as cold and disengaging. Obstacles to ascension to be the nation’s also include her seemingly “textbook” stance on key political issues.

The author of an article published by the National Review asserts; “Hillary is closer to Howard Dean than to Bill Clinton.” A supporter of the Iraqi invasion, a free trader and a compromiser on cultural issues supported by the likes of neo-conservative former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum too raises a specter of concern. Moreover an ill attempt at promoting health care reform deemed by many a carbon copy of socialized medicine and continued engagement in a marriage oftentimes characterized as complex heighten reservation.

Detractors define her as an opportunist and a polarizing figure absent of authenticity. While 84% of democrats maintain a favorable opinion of her 73% of republicans feel otherwise. Consequently most polls show Hillary with a 49% negative rating – a revelation exceeding similar valuations on two previous democratic contenders Al Gore and John Kerry who both lost presidential bids. Hillary’s woes are also compounded by with disclosure that 50% of married males will refrain from lending her support. Equally disturbing is a national comparison with the republican front runner former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in an even race plus a review of republican and swing states indicate a greater disadvantage.

Red and Marginal States at a Glance

                                                           Red                             Purple

Clinton                                               40%                             41%
Giuliani                                              49%                             47%

Source: Quinnipac University

At the extreme is an anti-Hillary campaign that foresees political disarray with her prospect of claiming victory. Illegal immigration, huge tax increases, subsidized healthcare, the abolition of the Patriot Act, a loss in Iraq and terrorism would redefine the American terrain. Such nevertheless is propaganda typical of the republican machinery and must therefore be balanced against a counter translation.

Chilling describes the electorate’s response to this president’s leadership. On election day 2002, a job approval rating of 42% surprisingly translated into increased control of the House and the Senate but a reversal four years later as the administration’s ranking plummeted. According to the Washington Post/ABC news poll this past April the level of discontent is unabated with 47% of voters strongly disapproving of Bush’s job performance versus 20% that strongly approve. Exacerbating the situation is intense resentment toward the 43^rd president reflected by an all low rating of 29%, 8% south of Bill Clinton’s worst evaluation in office and 7% above the worst assessment of its kind on record.

The Lowest Presidential Standings to Date

George W. Bush                                 29%

Richard Nixon                                    23%
Harry Truman                                     22%

With the Iraqi war in full force claiming the lives of approximately 4,000 American solders while simultaneously depleting the US treasury of over $465 billion the country has lost faith in its commander in chief to victoriously end the debacle. At least 60% are of the opinion that the president misled the American public in promoting the conflict. Whereas only 5% believe the current president can end the quagmire 70% are in favor of such an outcome.

Unfortunately the party of Abraham Lincoln is also displaying a failing scorecard on class and the economy. During a period of price acceleration in consumer commodities and services beyond 50% of American households earn less than $40,000 per annum.

A Perception of the American Public

Years                           1988                            2002

Haves                          71%                             48%
Have nots                    25%                             48%

Source: Pew Polls 2002

With a record on spending and deficits transforming a projected $5.6 trillion surplus into a $3.4 trillion deficit unparalleled borrowing has become the order of the day. Accompanied by declining stocks, low interest rates and the plunge of the American dollar against a rising euro, British pound and Canadian dollar Wall Street’s stability is in doubt.

Further most economic forecasters are predicting the possibility of a recession partly due to the foreclosure disaster which will be magnified by a credit crisis. Other issues of relevance include job creation and economic growth which is recorded at a monthly average of 53,000 with fiscal performance of 2.6% in contrast to 237,000 and 3.6% respectively under the previous regime.

Notwithstanding bi-partisan support in Congress, the endorsement of 43 governors and an 84% majority in a CBS-New York Times poll, the president has vetoed the expansion of the SCHIP under the guise of expense and socialized healthcare. Intolerance has likewise been demonstrated on the subject of immigration as Mexico and other Latin American countries are targeted and the treat of terrorism is irresponsibly utilized to sway public opinion while scandals surrounding the use of torture at Guantanamo, Cuba and Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and the exposure of high profile intelligence personnel the likes of Valarie Palme shatter an image of ethnics and morality. In an upcoming book entitled “What Happened Inside the Bush White House and What’s Wrong with Washington” former White House press secretary Scott McClellan accuses the Commander in Chief, Vice President Richard Cheney, Chief of Staff Andrew Card, Deputy Chief of Staff Carl Rove and Cheney’s Chief of Staff Scoot Libby of misinformation presented at a press briefing on the Palme saga.

As the administration steadfastly denies limitations to military power and executes disregard for civil discourse, honesty, transparency and democratic values its fate remains one of despair. Since January the While House has lost seven top advisors White House Counsel Harriet Miers, Counsel Dan Barlett, Budget Director Robert Portman, White House guru Karl Rove, White House spokeman Tony Snow, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Chief Terrorism Advisor Fran Townsend. The “fall out” is also sending tremors through Congress as seventeen republicans house members and six republican senators announced resignations effective at terms end.

A mid October survey conducted by USA Today/Gallup reveals 72% of those polled are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in the US while only 26% voiced contentment.

Measuring the Nations Mood

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Also perturbing is the fact that only 38% of American surveyed have a favorable view of the republican party as opposed to 53% for the democrats and most recently more than three-fourths of Americans conclude economic conditions are worsening.

In the words of Dan Simpson, a retired diplomat; “There is no obvious GOP candidate in waiting with bona fide White House experience to put forward, someone who might have a decent prospect of winning in 2008, despite Iraq. Instead they have a large collection of flawed, unconvincing characters.”

The list is as follows:

Rudy Giuliani – Although the current crowned prince with some credentials on crime during his stint as mayor of New York City his profile is tarnished by a lightening rod image, his stance on abortion and a record of three marriages.

Mitt Rommey – The wealthy dark horse who has a strong visibility in Iowa and New Hampshire and could possibly win Utah, Michigan and Massachusetts in the upcoming primaries is short on credibility as he “flip-flops” on matters pertinent to conservatives.

John McCain – The darling of 2000 has a great biography and is respected by many Americans but financial limitations and an allegiance to George Bush on the war in Iraq are insurmountable hurdles.

Fred Thompson - Like Ronald Reagan is credited as a good actor with an impressive campaign team but his message is unclear and funds are lacking.

The October 30 democratic debate has contributed to a sense of fluidity among the three top contestants. With Obama and Edwards accusing Hillary of a lack of candor on Iraq, social security and the unsettling matter of issuing driver’s license to illegal aliens in the state of New York along with implied demonstration of dishonesty through the fielding of questions to members of her audience a comfortable lead has diminished from 36% to 25% over her closest rival and the Iowa contest is now declared a virtual three tie.

A Close Race

                                               Oct 12-14                                Nov 2-4

Clinton                                    51%                                         44%
Obama                                     21%                                         25%
Edwards                                  15%                                         14%

Source: CNN opinion poll of 475 registered democrats

However weeks later Hillary’s performance at the Las Vegas forum was distinguishable and gave insight of a front runner prepared to do battle. Barring a tidal wave of future mishaps or unpredictability of independents estimated at 50% of the state’s voting population she will be rewarded with a new year’s victory on January 8 in New Hampshire.

The results below are reflections of likely democratic votes

New Hampshire

Clinton                                    43%

Obama                                     22%
Edwards                                  14%

Source: Des Moines Register

If all holds true on January 26 Hillary could win South Carolina by a slim margin otherwise Edwards will benefit from her defeat. On the other hand Florida seems all but assured to the Clinton camp as well as vital states such as New York and California.

 New York                                                                   California

Clinton                                    49%                             Clinton                                    45%

Obama                                     12%                             Obama                                     20%
Edwards                                  11%                             Edwards                                  11%

(Among registered democratic voters)                        (Among likely democratic voters)

Source: Des Moines Register

The Clinton agenda while not a panacea for all problems seeks to rectify failed policies and errors of omission by advancing inclusiveness.

A Summary of Clinton’s Proposals

Investing in manufacturing research

Providing tax credits to create American jobs
Expanding the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program
Ensuring free and fair trade
Ending China’s currency manipulation practices
Assisting in cost relief for American companies
Advancing new technology and alternative energy supply
Protecting the privacy of Americans

In a race bereft of an incumbent, the first of its kind in at least fifty years Hillary has become the standard by which both republicans and democratic candidates are judged and has therefore assumed many characteristics normally associated with such an individual. Henceforth a process driven by constant appraisals of her and all republican rivals and surveys of all segments of American society regarding her attributes or lack thereof could contribute to a referendum on Clinton rather than a choice for a political leader. This observation is not lost on Giuliani who oftentimes claims to be the only candidate that can successfully defeat his female counterpart.

History is repeating itself with Hillary Clinton as cast director. The ability orchestrated by Ronald Reagan in all but securing his party’s nomination long before the election is being relived by New York’s junior senator. Conservative columnist Robert Novak concludes, “She is odds on favorite to win the party’s candidacy” while former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerry told New York magazine, “I don’t know how you beat her for the democratic nomination. She is a rock star.”

With all her baggage assessed the most appropriate question below still yields some positive results

If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for president in 2008 how likely would you be to vote for her?

Very likely 29%

Somewhat likely 24%
Not very likely 7%
Not at all likely 40%
No opinion 1%

In an August Gallup survey 30% of the participants considered Hillary moderate with 9% unexpectedly describing her as conservative mitigating the perception of a left wing candidate incapable of winning the presidency. Moreover whereas John Kerry’s voting record ranked him the most liberal senate member and created a platform for a Bush victory in 2004 Hillary by comparison shares bipartisan credentials on economic issues, national security and foreign affairs.

Modification in perspective towards a female political candidate is being exhibited across the American landscape. In 1999 Congress was graced with fifty six women, the senate nine and the governor’s mansions three. Today there are sixty six congresswomen with three non voting delegates, sixteen senators and eight governors accompanied by an ongoing elevation of women to CEO appointments. Such metamorphosis unmistakably bodes well for Hillary as do polls that indicate 74% of respondents stated they could vote for a female candidate.

Whereas Bill Clinton’s transgressions will be a ghost from Hillary’s past, Giuliani’s marital conduct leaves much to be desired. In addition to her credit is an association with a former president who enjoys a working relationship with his predecessor and successor and whose administration achieved prosperity - 22 million new jobs, increased incomes, a decline in welfare registration and the expansion of NATO and global stability.

Unfolding events at home and abroad overshadow the possibility of duplicating 1988 when the Republican party won a third consecutive term. A mood of frustration and indifference towards the current establishment signals a desire for change and creates a window of opportunity for the democrats to promote a nominee as the symbol for transition. With Hillary poised to be the candidate of choice she will rewrite an aging chronicle as the first female president of these United States on November 4, 2008.